Austin’s record-breaking 1898-99 winter, with 57 freezes, still looms large in the minds of locals who keep a keen eye on the weather.
The Forecasting Challenge
Each year the KXAN First Warning Weather team is asked to predict how many times Austin will hit 100°. This season, the focus has flipped: how many freezes will Austin experience during the 2025-26 winter? The predictions were released on Nov. 21, and, as the meteorologists themselves admit, accurate forecasting beyond seven days is “incredibly difficult.”
What the Meteorologists Say
Tommy House – 15 Freezes
“Another weak La Niña winter is here, and I forecast 15 freezes. We’ve had 15 or more freezes in 3 of the last 5 meteorological winters. Let’s have another one (with some snow)!” – Tommy House
House’s outlook reflects the recent trend of weak La Niña winters, which have historically produced a higher number of freezes.
Nick Bannin – 13 Freezes
“I’m gonna go with 13! Weak La Niña like last winter and we ended up with more freezes than normal.” – Nick Bannin
Bannin’s estimate sits in the middle of the range, suggesting a winter that is slightly colder than average.
Kristen Currie – 11 Freezes
“I think this winter will fare close to average with temperatures so I’ll hover near our normal amount of freezes in Austin (12).” – Kristen Currie
Currie’s forecast leans toward the historical average of 12 freezes.
Rich Segal – 10 Freezes
“The weak La Niña is my main reason. I think the trend of warmer than normal temperatures are likely to continue even in our coldest months.” – Rich Segal
Segal’s prediction is the most conservative, expecting a relatively mild winter.
Freddy Vela – 9 Freezes
“Trending warmer and more cold, but not freezing, consistent temperatures will hold us back a bit. I think we will end up below average.” – Freddy Vela
Vela’s outlook is the lowest of the group, anticipating fewer than the historical average.
A Look at Austin’s Freeze History
- Most freezes on record: 57 in the winter of 1898-99.
- Never a winter without a freeze: Since records began, every winter in Austin has included at least one freeze.
- Fewest freezes: Four, occurring in both 1994-95 and 1997-98.
- Coldest temperature ever recorded: -2° on Jan. 31, 1949.
- Earliest recorded freeze: Oct. 26, 1924.
- Latest recorded freeze: Apr. 9, 1914.
- Average first freeze: Dec. 1.
- Average last freeze: Feb. 15.
- Dates with the most freezes: Jan. 7, Jan. 16, and Jan. 20, each with 35 freezes.
- Freezing vs. 100°: Austin has experienced freezing temperatures more often than 100° temperatures since records began.
These facts provide context for the predictions, highlighting how variable Austin’s winter weather can be.
Key Takeaways
- Forecasts range from 9 to 15 freezes, reflecting differing interpretations of weak La Niña impacts.
- Historical records show the 1898-99 winter as the coldest, with 57 freezes, while the fewest recorded freezes in a winter are four.
- The average first freeze falls on Dec. 1 and the average last freeze on Feb. 15, with Jan. 7, 16, and 20 being the coldest dates.
The 2025-26 winter promises to be a season of uncertainty for Austin residents, who will have to decide whether to stock up on blankets or prepare for a mild, snow-free season. As the forecasts suggest, the city’s experience will likely fall somewhere between the extremes of nine and fifteen freezes.
Closing
With predictions made more than a month in advance, the KXAN First Warning Weather team reminds viewers that weather forecasts beyond seven days carry significant uncertainty. Whether Austin ends up with a record-breaking cold snap or a relatively warm winter, the city’s residents will be watching the temperature gauges closely as the season unfolds.
