At a Glance
- Trump administration projects record tax refunds in 2026.
- Treasury estimates $100-$150 billion in total refunds, about $1,000-$2,000 per household.
- The bill also boosts 2025 refunds with higher deductions and tax-free items.
Why it matters: Americans could receive the largest refund ever, but the gains are uneven and some may see reduced benefits.
A new tax-code overhaul, dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill, is set to trigger the biggest U.S. tax refund season in decades, according to Treasury officials and congressional leaders. While many households anticipate a windfall, the legislation also reshapes how different income groups pay and receive tax relief.
Projected Refunds for 2026
Ways and Means Committee Chairman Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) cited a Piper Sandler analysis in a December memo that 2026 would see the largest tax refund season ever. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Americans could receive $100-$150 billion in total refunds, translating to roughly $1,000-$2,000 per household.
Ways and Means Committee Chairman Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) said:
> “The largest tax refund season.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said:
> “The bill was passed in July. Working Americans didn’t change their withholding, so they’re going to be getting very large refunds in the first quarter. I think we’re going to see $100 [billion]-$150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000 and $2,000 per household.”
- Higher standard deduction
- Higher cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions
- Additional $6,000 deduction for seniors
- No tax on tips
- No tax on overtime
- No tax on car loan interest
Impact on Different Income Groups
A Congressional Budget Office study found the bill favors high earners. Those in the top 10% could gain an extra $12,000, while the poorest 10% would lose $1,600 annually, and Medicaid and food assistance would be cut.
| Metric | Top 10% Change | Bottom 10% Change |
|---|---|---|
| Additional tax relief | +$12,000 | -$1,600 |
| Medicaid and food aid | – | – (cut) |
Expert Comments
Tax attorney Adam Brewer warned that refunds depend on individual circumstances and urged clients not to spend in anticipation.
Adam Brewer, tax attorney with AB Tax Law said:
> “If your income is based largely on overtime or tips, then you could be paying much less income tax than your co-worker even if you earn roughly the same amount.”
Key Takeaways
- Americans may receive the largest tax refund ever, with households expecting $1,000-$2,000.
- The bill benefits high earners most, giving the top 10% an extra $12,000.
- Low-income households could lose $1,600 and see cuts to Medicaid and food assistance.
The One Big Beautiful Bill reshapes the tax landscape, offering windfalls for some while tightening relief for others.
