At a Glance
- Texas Senate primary pits Sen. John Cornyn against Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt.
- Georgia’s governor and Senate races feature Burt Jones, Chris Carr, Brad Raffensperger, and Jon Ossoff.
- Michigan’s open Senate seat sees Mike Rogers vs. Haley Stevens and other contenders; Maine’s gubernatorial contest has Janet Mills against Graham Platner.
- Why it matters: These primaries will set the tone for the 2026 midterms and reveal the evolving split within both parties.
The 2026 election cycle is shaping up to be one of the most contested in recent memory. From Texas to California, the primaries are already offering a glimpse into the ideological battles that will define the 2026 midterms.
Texas
The Texas Senate primary is a three-way fight that could decide the future of the GOP’s Senate caucus. Sen. John Cornyn is battling Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt for the party’s nomination. Paxton and Hunt have questioned Cornyn’s conservative credentials and his past remarks about President Trump.
Cornyn has previously suggested the party needs to move on from Trump, but he has since portrayed himself as an ally of the president while labeling Paxton a “con man” and dismissing Hunt as lacking a credible path to victory.
Key Polling Snapshot
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 32% |
| John Cornyn | 27% |
| Wesley Hunt | 23% |
The race is expected to go to a runoff, as a candidate must secure more than half the vote to win outright. Trump’s endorsement is coveted, yet the president has kept his distance from the contest.
Georgia
Georgia’s primaries are a crowded field for both governor and Senate. The governor’s race includes Burt Jones, Chris Carr, and Brad Raffensperger, all vying to replace term-limited Brian Kemp.
Unlike many states, Georgia Republicans have not shied away from challenging Trump. In 2022, Trump’s picks for governor, attorney general, and secretary of state lost their GOP primaries to Kemp, Carr, and Raffensperger, respectively.
The Democratic primary is equally stacked, with former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, and several others. A recent survey showed Bottoms at 40%, Thurmond at 11%, and all others at 5% or less. Meanwhile, 40% of respondents were undecided.
Gubernatorial Polling
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Burt Jones | 22% |
| Brad Raffensperger | 15% |
| Chris Carr | 7% |
| Clark Dean | 1% |
Georgia will also host a marquee Senate race. Sen. Jon Ossoff seeks re-election, while Buddy Carter, Mike Collins, and former coach Derek Dooley vie for the GOP nomination.
Senate GOP Polling
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Mike Collins | 30% |
| Buddy Carter | 20% |
| Derek Dooley | 12% |
Trump has remained silent on the Senate contest, and polling data is sparse.
Michigan
In Michigan, the Senate seat is open after Sen. Gary Peters announced he will not seek re-election. Former Rep. Mike Rogers is running again for the GOP nomination, facing challengers like former GOP co-chair Bernadette Smith.
The Democratic side is a proxy battle between mainstream and progressive factions. Haley Stevens, the preferred pick of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, faces Mallory McMorrow, former health director Abdul El-Sayed, and veteran Rachel Howard.
GOP Primary Polling
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Mike Rogers | (Lead in multiple polls) |
| Bernadette Smith | (Challenge) |
Democratic Primary Polling
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Haley Stevens | (Lead in some polls) |
| Abdul El-Sayed | (Competitive) |
| Mallory McMorrow | (Competitive) |
| Rachel Howard | (Competitive) |
The polls suggest Rogers edges Stevens, but the margins are thin.
Maine
Maine’s Democratic primary is a high-profile proxy battle between Governor Janet Mills and oyster farmer Graham Platner. Mills enjoys endorsements from Andy Beshear and Gretchen Whitmer, while Platner is backed by Bernie Sanders, the UAW, and youth groups.
Platner faced controversy over deleted Reddit remarks and a tattoo linked to Nazi symbolism, but he has since distanced himself from those views.
Maine Democratic Primary Polling
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Janet Mills | 47% |
| Graham Platner | 37% |
| Undecided | 14% |
In hypothetical matchups, Platner edges Sen. Susan Collins 43-42, while Mills ties Collins at 43-43. The margins fall within a 3.7-point error, effectively tying the candidates.
California
California’s open primary system allows all candidates to compete on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters advance, meaning two Democrats or two Republicans could secure spots in November.
Notable contenders include Eric Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter, former Biden Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, billionaire Tom Steyer, Superintendent Tony Thurmond, and former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
On the Republican side, Steve Hilton and Sheriff Chad Bianco are prominent. A recent poll showed Bianco at 13%, Hilton and Swalwell each at 12%, and Porter at 11%, with 31% undecided.
Key Takeaways
- Texas’ Senate primary will likely go to a runoff, with Trump’s endorsement still hotly contested.
- Georgia’s governor and Senate races feature a mix of Trump-endorsed and independent candidates, creating a volatile field.
- Michigan’s open Senate seat pits a former congressman against a progressive Democratic contender, reflecting intra-party divisions.
- Maine’s gubernatorial contest pits a seasoned governor against a controversial outsider, with polls showing a close race.
- California’s open primary could produce two Democrats or two Republicans, adding uncertainty to the state’s political future.
These primaries underscore how the 2026 election cycle will be a litmus test for party unity and ideological direction, setting the stage for the midterms.
