At a Glance
- 2025 saw a wave of Democratic victories amid Trump’s second term
- Democrats need just 3 seats to flip the House from a 220-213 Republican advantage
- Key wins include Virginia’s Spanberger, New Jersey’s Sherrill, NYC’s Mamdani, and an Iowa Senate seat
Why it matters: These victories could reshape Congress and test the party’s messaging strategy heading into the midterms.
In 2025, Democrats rode a surge of electoral wins that could set the stage for a House takeover in the upcoming midterms, yet internal divisions over strategy and messaging remain.
2025: A Year of Overperformance
The party’s focus on the high cost of living under President Trump helped secure victories in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City, Georgia, Miami, and Iowa. These wins highlighted a growing frustration with the Trump administration among voters. The victories also gave the party momentum for future contests.
- Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger won by a large margin
- New Jersey’s Mikie Sherrill won by a large margin
- New York City’s Zohran Mamdani won the mayoral race
- A commission seat in Georgia flipped to Democrats
- Miami’s mayoral office changed hands
- Iowa’s state Senate seat stayed Democratic
Leadership Voices
Democrats are finding a way out of political wilderness, said Sawyer Hackett.
Sawyer Hackett said:
> ‘Democrats are finding their way out of political wilderness and heading back into political power, with the help of Trump, his agenda. … But I don’t think we should mistake this for Democrats becoming, overnight, a lot more popular, or having fixed the tremendous failures that got us into this position,’
The last special election proved 2025 was a year of Democratic victories, said Ken Martin.
Ken Martin said:
> ‘With the last special election of the year now decided, one thing is clear: 2025 was the year of Democratic victories and overperformance, and Democrats are on track for big midterm elections,’
The first half of 2025 was a period of despair and confusion, said Cheyenne Hunt.
Cheyenne Hunt said:
> ‘The first half of 2025, electorally, was a lot of despair and I think, frankly, also a party deeply in confusion and disarray, trying to figure out what a new direction forward is and how we fumbled the ball so badly in the last presidential race. It was really divisive and really contentious,’
Democrats constantly have something to throw against the wall, said Michael Ceraso.
Michael Ceraso said:
> ‘All that obviously makes it easier for Democrats to constantly have something to throw against the wall,’ said Democratic strategist Michael Ceraso, who’s worked on multiple presidential campaigns. ‘But I would argue I’m not quite sure if there’s a message that Democrats have proposed and driven that’s created the results we saw in November, or leading into the momentum that we’re seeing next year.’
The big debate inside the party is whether to follow Mamdani or Sherrill-Spanberger, said Matt Bennett.
Matt Bennett said:
> ‘The big debate inside our party at the moment is whether to follow the kind of Mamdani script or the Sherrill-Spanberger model, and whether moving far to the left is what our base demands and will in the end turn out a lot more voters,’
The party still has not learned its lessons from the past, said Hackett.
Hackett said:
> ‘The Democratic Party still has not learned its lessons from the past, and we’re finding a ton of success in the era of Trump because of how chaotic and corrupt and incompetent he is. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ve found our way out of the many failures that our party had in the last election,’
A unified message is needed for 2028, said Bennett.
Bennett said:
> ‘I think we will need a unified message going into ’28,’ Bennett said. ‘And inevitably, parties don’t cohere around such a message until they move towards having a nominee.’
Strategic Focus for 2026
The party is refining its message around affordability and specific local issues, but internal debate remains over how far left to go.
| Chamber | Republican Seats | Democrat Seats | Seats Needed for Flip |
|---|---|---|---|
| House | 220 | 213 | 3 |
The DNC is expanding target lists for both state legislatures and the House, where Republicans hold a slim advantage.
Key Takeaways
- 2025’s victories signal potential momentum for a House flip.
- Internal divisions over messaging could threaten that momentum.
- A unified message will be crucial as the party heads into the midterms.
The surge from 2025 offers hope but also highlights the need for a unified message as Democrats prepare for the upcoming elections.
