> At a Glance
> – Democrats gained momentum with wins in Virginia, New Jersey, NYC mayor, Georgia PSC, Miami mayor, and California redistricting.
> – Economy concerns hurt the GOP, with President Trump’s low approval and polls showing many Americans give him a failing grade on the economy.
> – Redistricting wars and party divisions are shaping the 2026 midterms.
> – Why it matters: These shifts could alter control of Congress and set the stage for 2028.
The 2025 off-year elections have delivered unexpected results that could reshape the political landscape for the 2026 midterms and beyond.
Democratic Momentum
Democrats were battered by 2024 losses, but have reenergized with a string of off-year victories.
They won big in Virginia and New Jersey governors.
They also captured the NYC mayor race, flipped two Georgia PSC seats, captured the Miami mayor office, and secured a Democrat-friendly redistricting plan in California.
- Virginia governor – Democrat
- New Jersey governor – Democrat
- NYC mayor – Zohran Mamdani
- Georgia PSC – 2 seats flipped
- Miami mayor – Democrat
- California redistricting – Democrat-friendly
| State | Office | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia | Governor | Democrat |
| New Jersey | Governor | Democrat |
| New York City | Mayor | Zohran Mamdani |
| Georgia | Public Service Commission | Democrat |
| Florida | Mayor (Miami) | Democrat |
| California | Redistricting Plan | Democrat-friendly |
Economic Headwinds for Republicans
The economy was the top issue, with voters citing affordability and cost-of-living concerns.
President Trump’s economic approval ratings are at historic lows, and polls show many Americans give him a failing grade on the economy.
Ron Bonjean stated:
> “Democrats are counting on blaming Republicans as a party-unifying theme, that’s why we must offer and pursue new ideas on how we are going to continue to tackle challenges with rising costs in order to win over voters next year.”
Redistricting Wild Card
A fierce redistricting battle has unfolded across the country, with Texas pushing a GOP-friendly plan.
California voters passed Proposition 50, creating five additional Democratic seats, while Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah also drafted new House maps.
A Supreme Court case on Louisiana’s map could further alter the balance if the Voting Rights Act is weakened.
Party Divisions and 2028 Outlook
Internal divisions show as progressives win NYC mayor while moderates win governors in New Jersey and Virginia.
Fred Hicks cautioned:
> “Don’t fall into the trap the Republicans are trying to set, that’s to say that Mamdani is the face of the Democratic Party. I really think we need to let Democratic candidates reflect their communities. Do not try to nationalize the campaign beyond the affordability and personal economy message.”
The 2028 primary is already shaping, with Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris eyeing a bid, and Vice President Vance seen as a potential successor to Trump.
Key Takeaways
- Democrats’ off-year victories give them fresh momentum heading into the 2026 midterms.
- Economic concerns are eroding Republican support, especially around President Trump’s performance.
- Redistricting battles and internal party divisions add uncertainty to the 2026 and 2028 contests.
These early results set the stage for a contested 2026 midterm and a heated 2028 primary.
