Miami Dolphins are at a crossroads for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa after a season of uncertainty and a contract that could cost the franchise more than $100 million in dead cap.
Contract and Cap Landscape
Tagovailoa, 27, signed a four-year, $212.4 million extension after leading the NFL with 4,624 passing yards in 2023 and guiding Miami to 11 wins and a playoff berth. The deal includes $54 million guaranteed for the 2024 season. Because of this guarantee, any trade or release carries a heavy financial burden. If the Dolphins trade him before March 13, they would incur a $45.2 million dead-cap hit; after March 13, the hit rises to $60.2 million.
Release Scenarios
Releasing Tagovailoa before the March deadline would obligate the Dolphins to pay the $54 million guaranteed in 2026 while absorbing $99.2 million in dead salary-cap charges-an amount larger than any NFL franchise has ever taken. Denver’s release of Russell Wilson in 2024 produced an $85 million cap hit, spread over two seasons. By designating the release as post-June 1, Miami could spread Tagovailoa’s charges: $67.4 million in 2026 and $31.8 million in 2027.
Trade Possibilities
A trade would require a team with ample cap space willing to absorb Tagovailoa’s hefty contract. The Dolphins could sweeten a deal with draft picks, but the quarterback’s contract remains a significant deterrent. If the Dolphins keep him as a backup-mirroring Atlanta’s handling of Kirk Cousins-the team could sidestep the dead-cap nightmare while still retaining a former Pro Bowler.
Backup or Reclamation?
Tagovailoa’s 2023 season was marked by a league-leading 15 interceptions and a history of concussions, factors that may discourage teams from taking a long-term risk. Yet, the quarterback’s past three seasons featured Pro Bowl selections and passer ratings above 100. Several first-round picks-Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold-have revived their careers after a fresh start, suggesting a reclamation project is not unheard of.
Potential Destinations for 2026
- New York Jets – The Jets have never beaten Tagovailoa (0-7) and are looking for a franchise quarterback. A released Tagovailoa could be signed for the veteran minimum, while Miami would still owe $50 million-plus.
- Cleveland Browns – Like the Jets, the Browns are in a similar position and have already tried two rookie quarterbacks: Dillon Gabriel (1-5) and Shedeur Sanders (1-3).
- Las Vegas Raiders – The Raiders need a franchise quarterback and are known for taking risks. Tagovailoa’s preference for warmer climates could fit well, and the team will likely draft a quarterback in the first round.
- Pittsburgh Steelers – With Aaron Rodgers at 42 and a looming retirement, the Steelers need a future signal-caller. Tagovailoa could learn from Rodgers’ experience.
- Arizona Cardinals – Kyler Murray’s $230.5 million extension (average $46.1 million per year) makes a trade difficult, but a swap could still be considered.
Key Takeaways
- Tagovailoa’s contract creates a $99.2 million dead-cap burden if released before March 13.
- The Dolphins’ 6-8 record and 11-year playoff drought add pressure to resolve the quarterback situation.
- Five teams-Jets, Browns, Raiders, Steelers, Cardinals-could be potential destinations if a trade or release materializes.
The Dolphins’ decision will shape the franchise’s direction for years to come, as the team balances financial constraints, player performance, and the promise of a fresh start for Tagovailoa.
