Mortgage Rates Set to Hover Near 6% in 2026, Offering Only Modest Relief for Homebuyers

In a recent analysis of the housing market, experts predict that the 30‑year fixed mortgage rate will stay close to 6% next year, offering only a slight easing of borrowing costs.

2026 Rate Forecasts

Housing forecasters are converging on a 30‑year fixed rate around 6% in 2026, a modest decline from the 6.6% average seen this year. The forecast numbers are:

• Redfin: 6.3%
• Realtor.com: 6.3%
• Zillow: “hold above 6%”
• National Association of Realtors: 6.0%
• Fannie Mae: 6.0%

These projections suggest a slow, incremental drift toward lower rates, but the change is unlikely to make a significant dent in affordability.

Current Rate Landscape

As of Thursday, the average 30‑year fixed rate was 6.22%, down from 6.60% a year ago, according to Freddie Mac. The decline reflects a gradual easing of borrowing costs, but the difference is modest compared with the sub‑3% rates that were common in 2021.

Federal Reserve’s Recent Move

The Federal Reserve’s third consecutive interest‑rate cut on Wednesday was largely anticipated by markets, meaning the impact on mortgage rates is expected to be limited. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized this point in a press conference, stating that the latest quarter‑point decline would not “make much of a difference” for the housing market. He added, “Housing supply is low. Many people have very, very low mortgages from the pandemic period.”

Why Rates Will Stay Near 6% in 2026

While the Fed does not set mortgage rates directly, its policy decisions shape the broader economic environment that influences those rates. After three cuts in 2025, officials are not expecting to lower rates significantly in 2026. Projections released Wednesday show that policymakers anticipate only one cut in 2026, indicating that borrowing costs will likely remain close to current levels.

Redfin’s head of economics research, Chen Zhao, explained the reasoning on the company’s website: “Given the underlying economic fundamentals of 3% inflation coupled with a weakening — but not recessionary — labor market, the Fed is likely to hold steady in the near future.”

Expected Impact on Affordability

Housing economists predict a slow, modest decline in mortgage rates. Redfin notes that rates could dip below 6% “occasionally” next year, but “not for any meaningful period.” Realtor.com expects a slight improvement in affordability as the market moves toward a “healthier” balance.

Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist, said: “The path back toward historic levels of affordability will be gradual, but 2026 takes a solid step in the right direction.”

Key Takeaways

• Mortgage rates are projected to hover near 6% in 2026, offering only modest relief for homebuyers.
• Despite the Fed’s third rate cut, affordability gains remain limited and the market stays tight.
• Experts expect only one rate cut in 2026, suggesting borrowing costs will stay close to current levels.

Closing Thoughts

While the 2026 forecast signals a slight easing of mortgage rates, the overall impact on affordability is expected to be minimal. The housing market will likely continue to face challenges from low supply and high rates, keeping the cost of homeownership a persistent concern for many prospective buyers. Sellers, meanwhile, anticipate a gradual shift in market dynamics over the coming years, but the pace of change remains slow overall.