On Sunday, Myanmar opened the first of three voting phases in a general election that critics say will neither restore democracy nor end the civil war that erupted after the 2021 army takeover. 102 of the country’s 330 townships will hold ballots, while 65 townships remain closed because of ongoing conflict with ethnic guerrilla groups and resistance forces. The vote marks the first nationwide exercise in five years and a key moment for the military, which has framed the polls as a return to multi-party democracy.
Election Overview
The election will take place in three stages: the first on Sunday, the second on Jan. 11 and the third on Jan. 25. 57 parties have fielded candidates, but most only contest seats in their home states or regions. Six parties are competing nationwide and could win enough seats to wield political power, yet the rules make it likely that the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) will emerge in a position to lead a new government. Nearly 5,000 candidates are vying for more than 1,100 seats in the two chambers of the national legislature and in state and regional legislatures.
Military Strategy and Criticism
The military has presented the polls as a step toward inclusive governance, hoping to add a veneer of legitimacy to its rule that began after it ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. Human rights and opposition groups argue the vote is neither free nor fair, and that power will remain in the hands of Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing. Myanmar analyst Richard Horsey of the International Crisis Group told The Associated Press, “These elections are not credible at all.” He added, “They do not include any of the political parties that did well in the last election or the election before.”
Political Landscape and Boycotts
Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy are not participating. The former leader, now 80, is serving a 27-year prison term on charges widely seen as politically motivated, and her party was dissolved after refusing to register under new military rules. Other parties have also boycotted the vote or declined to run under conditions they say are unfair. Analyst Amael Vier of the Asian Network for Free Elections noted that “Myanmar’s political parties that won 90 % of the seats in 2020 no longer exist today.” The Election Protection Law enacted this year imposes harsh penalties and effectively bars public criticism of the polls, with more than 200 people charged for leafleting or online activity.
Humanitarian Impact
The human cost of the conflict remains high. According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, more than 22,000 people are detained for political offenses and over 7,600 civilians have been killed by security forces since the army seized power. More than 3.6 million people are internally displaced, most driven from their homes by warfare, creating a major humanitarian crisis. The U.N. Human Rights Office said, “Myanmar is witnessing intensified violence, repression, and intimidation ahead of military-controlled elections,” adding that civilians are threatened by both military authorities and armed opposition groups regarding participation. Amnesty International researcher Joe Freeman said that many fear the election will only entrench the power of those responsible for years of unlawful killings.
Horsey on Post-Election Conflict
Horsey believes that after the polls, Myanmar is likely to see increased conflict as opponents attempt to prove the military still lacks popular legitimacy. He warns that the military’s strategy to secure a landslide win for the USDP will shift Myanmar from direct military rule to a government with a “civilian veneer” that perpetuates army control, allowing the military to claim progress toward inclusiveness in the spirit of a peace proposal by the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Key Takeaways
- The first phase of Myanmar’s general election will be held in 102 of 330 townships, with the remaining 65 townships closed due to conflict.
- 57 parties field candidates, but the pro-military USDP is poised to dominate the results, while opposition parties boycott the vote.
- Over 22,000 people are detained, 7,600 civilians have been killed, and 3.6 million are internally displaced, underscoring the severe humanitarian crisis.
The elections mark a pivotal moment for Myanmar, but widespread criticism, a boycott by key opposition forces, and a brutal conflict raise serious doubts about the legitimacy and future stability of the new government.
