College Football Playoff opening week is a quiet affair compared to past years, as the spotlight falls on two Group of Five teams that are heavy underdogs.
The Group of Five Threat
Tulane, seeded 11th, faces sixth-seeded Mississippi, who is favored by 17.5 points at BetMGM Sportsbook. James Madison, the 12th seed, is slated to play fifth-seeded Oregon, with Oregon enjoying a 20.5-point advantage. These matchups have drawn less betting action and dampened the excitement that usually surrounds the first round.
Betting Voices
Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, said, “It’s not as hyped up and exciting as it has been in years prior.” Seamus Magee, BetMGM trading manager, added, “We’re still waiting for a bulk of the action to come through.” Both experts note that while the opening games may lack drama, the next round promises to generate significant handle.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma
The most anticipated game is the eighth-seeded Oklahoma Sooners’ home match against ninth-seeded Alabama. The betting line has oscillated, with BetMGM favoring Oklahoma by 1.5 points as of Thursday afternoon. CBS SportsLine handicapper Bruce Marshall highlighted offensive concerns for both teams: Alabama’s rushing attack struggled in the SEC title game, and Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has yet to find a rhythm after returning from injury.
Marshall remarked, “The rematch thing kind of makes you like Alabama a little bit here, but I don’t know they look like they’re a threat to go any deeper than this round.” He continued, “They might get by this one, but they’re going to have to play a lot better than they have in the last month, certainly a lot better than they did against Georgia. That effort didn’t make any sense. There was no reason for them to be as flat as they were in that game.”
Ohio State Still the Favorite
Second-seeded Ohio State, despite losing the Big Ten title game to Indiana, remains the clear favorite to win the national championship. BetMGM lists the Buckeyes at +225, with Indiana at +275 and Georgia at +500. Magee noted, “Ohio State is the No. 1 most-bet team by a wide margin, but their price has been so short all year.” He added, “My prediction is Ohio State over Indiana. You saw it last year Ohio State losing to Michigan, they lose to Indiana this year, but you see what this team is capable of come playoff time.”
Ole Miss Without Kiffin
Lane Kiffin’s abrupt exit as Ole Miss head coach has left the Rebels’ playoff prospects uncertain. The team, once seen as a borderline national championship contender under Kiffin, is now listed at 25-1 to win the title at BetMGM. Marshall said, “Kiffin was so involved in the mechanics of that and the play calling, (his absence) might actually hurt Ole Miss a bit.” He added, “It could work both ways. They could really galvanize and circle the wagons around (coach Pete) Golding, but I think the specifics without Kiffin the play caller could hurt Chambliss a little bit.”
The Bye-Game Debate
All four schools that earned a first-round bye lost in the quarterfinals last season when the CFP expanded to a 12-team format. The major downside of the bye is the three-week wait, which could reduce sharpness. Feazel countered, “That’s referring to a one-year trend,” and stressed, “We’re talking about (only) four games where that happened last year. … I think it still is an advantage to get a bye, especially just the time to prepare depending on the coach.”
Key Takeaways
- Tulane and James Madison are heavy underdogs in the first round, with Mississippi and Oregon favored by large margins.
- The Alabama-Oklahoma rematch is the most watched game, but both teams face offensive doubts.
- Ohio State remains the top betting favorite, with Indiana and Georgia close behind.
- Ole Miss’ fortunes may shift after Lane Kiffin’s departure, with a 25-1 odds placement.
- A first-round bye may still be advantageous, despite last year’s losses.
The opening week sets a subdued tone, but the betting landscape and upcoming matchups promise to heat up as the playoffs progress.
