AP reports two NATO intelligence services say Russia may be building an anti-satellite weapon aimed at Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation.
Investigation into Russian Anti-Satellite Weapon
The intelligence findings were shown to the AP on condition that the services involved were not identified. The news organization was unable to independently verify the conclusions, but the documents describe a “zone-effect” weapon that would flood Starlink orbits with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets. The intent, according to the analysis, is to curb Western space superiority that has supported Ukraine on the battlefield.
The weapon would target multiple satellites at once. Analysts who have not seen the findings doubt that such a system could work without causing uncontrollable chaos in space for companies and countries that rely on thousands of orbiting satellites for communications, defense, and other vital needs.
Such repercussions, including risks to Russia’s own space systems, could steer Moscow away from deploying or using such a weapon, analysts said.
Expert Opinions
“I don’t buy it. Like, I really don’t,” said Victoria Samson, a space-security specialist at the Secure World Foundation who leads the Colorado-based NGO’s annual study of anti-satellite systems. “I would be very surprised, frankly, if they were to do something like that.”
The commander of the Canadian military’s Space Division, Brig. Gen. Christopher Horner, said such Russian work cannot be ruled out. “I can’t say I’ve been briefed on that type of system. But it’s not implausible,” he said. “If the reporting on the nuclear weapons system is accurate and that they’re willing to develop that and willing to go to that end, well it wouldn’t strike me as shocking that something just short of that, but equally damaging, is within their wheelhouse of development.”
Clayton Swope, a space security and weaponry specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said if the pellets are not trackable, that complicates things but “people would figure it out.” “If satellites start winking out with damage, I guess you could put two and two together,” he said.
Technical Details of the Proposed Weapon
The pellets would be so small – just millimeters across – that they would evade detection by ground- and space-based systems that scan for space objects. The intelligence findings say the weapon would release the pellets from yet-to-be launched formations of small satellites. The pellets could remain undetected until they strike a target, making it hard to pin blame for any attack on Moscow.
The weapon would flood Starlink orbits with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets, potentially disabling multiple satellites at once. Analysts note that most damage would probably be done to solar panels, the most fragile part of satellites, enough to bring a satellite offline.
The new weapon would target multiple Starlinks at once, with pellets possibly released by yet-to-be launched formations of small satellites, the intelligence findings say.
Russian Stance and International Reactions
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn’t respond to messages from the AP seeking comment. Russia has previously called for United Nations efforts to stop the orbital deployment of weapons. President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow has no intention of deploying nuclear space weapons.
Russian officials repeatedly have warned that commercial satellites serving Ukraine’s military could be legitimate targets. This month, Russia said it has fielded a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, which is capable of hitting low-orbit targets.
The U.S. Space Force didn’t respond to e-mailed questions. The French military’s Space Command said it could not comment on the findings but said, “We can inform you that Russia has, in recent years, been multiplying irresponsible, dangerous, and even hostile actions in space.”
Potential Impact on Space Operations
After such an attack, pellets and debris would over time fall back toward Earth, possibly damaging other orbiting systems on their way down. Starlink’s orbits are about 550 kilometers (340 miles) above the planet. China’s Tiangong space station and the International Space Station operate at lower orbits, “so both would face risks,” according to Swope.
The space chaos that such a weapon could cause might enable Moscow to threaten its adversaries without actually having to use it. “It definitely feels like a weapon of fear, looking for some kind of deterrence or something,” Swope said.
System Is Possibly Just Experimental
The findings seen by the AP didn’t say when Russia might be capable of deploying such a system nor detail whether it has been tested or how far along research is believed to be. The system is in active development and information about the timing of an expected deployment is too sensitive to share, according to an official familiar with the findings and other related intelligence that the AP did not see.
Such Russian research could be simply experimental, Samson said. “I wouldn’t put it past some scientists … to build out something like this because it’s an interesting thought-experiment and they think, you know, ‘Maybe at some point we can get our government to pay for it,'” she said.
Samson suggested the specter of a supposed new Russian threat may also be an effort to elicit an international response. “Often times people pushing these ideas are doing it because they want the U.S. side to build something like that or … to justify increased spending on counterspace capabilities or using it for a more hawkish approach on Russia,” she said.
She added that the drawbacks of an indiscriminate pellet-weapon could steer Russia off such a path. “They’ve invested a huge amount of time and money and human power into being, you know, a space power,” Samson said. “Using such a weapon would effectively cut off space for them as well.”
Key Takeaways
- Russia may be developing a zone-effect anti-satellite weapon aimed at Starlink.
- The weapon would release millimeter-sized pellets that are hard to detect.
- Analysts warn that such a system could cause widespread space debris and collateral damage.
The intelligence findings highlight a potential shift in space security dynamics, with Russia’s alleged weapon development raising concerns about the safety of commercial and military satellites worldwide. Whether the weapon will ever be deployed remains unclear, but the possibility alone could influence international space policy and counter-space strategies.
Closing
The AP report underscores the growing complexity of space as a contested domain. As Russia’s alleged weapon development moves from speculation to potential reality, the international community will need to monitor the situation closely to safeguard the satellites that underpin modern communications, navigation, and defense systems.
