Senators Brace for Another Shutdown as Republicans Block Health‑Insurance Subsidy Extension

In a move that could set the stage for another government shutdown, senators from both parties are bracing for next year after Republicans blocked a proposal to extend expiring health insurance subsidies, the same issue that sparked the 43‑day closure that dominated the fall.

The Subsidy Standoff

Liberal Democrats are furious that Republicans blocked a proposal to keep subsidies—due to expire in January and extend through 2028—alive. A group of eight Democrats, mostly centrists, voted last month to reopen the government in the hope that Republicans might agree to a bipartisan compromise that would prevent health‑insurance premiums for people buying plans on the Affordable Care Act marketplace from soaring by double digits. Instead, the talks foundered, setting the stage for a massive spike in health‑care premiums next year.

Leveraging the Funding Deadline

The failure to extend the enhanced subsidies means an estimated 4.8 million Americans will lose coverage in 2026, and more than 20 million will see their health‑care costs rise dramatically. Insurance companies project a 26 percent increase in premiums if the subsidies expire in January. “The fight is not over,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.). “The next government–funding deadline is a leverage point.” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) called the Republican vote “an outrage.” Asked whether Democrats should threaten another shutdown, he said he didn’t want to speculate but warned that the expiration of tax credits “is going to result in a lot of pain for a lot of people.”

A third member of the Senate Democratic Caucus, speaking anonymously, said another shutdown is possible if Republicans do not agree to pass a package of regular spending bills known as the minibus by the end of next month. The Democratic senators said they would have far less leverage if the Senate appropriations package—covering Defense, Health and Human Services, Labor, Commerce, Justice, Interior and other agencies—passes next month. If President Trump signs that package into law, approximately 85 percent of the federal government would be funded through September 2026, leaving Democrats with little leverage to threaten a shutdown to push for an extension of the enhanced subsidies.

“If they bring the group of five bills to the floor and we get them coordinated with … the House, then essentially you have appropriations bills for 85, 95 percent of the government by the end of January, and shutdown doesn’t mean much,” the lawmaker said. “If those bills stall, then the likelihood of a shutdown skyrockets.” He added, “Then that raises this interesting question. Do we shut down over health care or Venezuela or Epstein files not being delivered?”

External Pressures

The senator warned that if Trump initiates a large‑scale bombing campaign against Venezuela, the issue would become a flash point on Capitol Hill that could spur Democrats to oppose any government‑funding bill to force the White House to back down.

Congressional Momentum

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R–S.D.) is pushing hard to get the package of five appropriations bills passed next month to strip Democrats of the leverage they seek to threaten another shutdown to pressure Republicans to back an extension of the expiring subsidies. Sen. John Cornyn (R–Tex.) warned that if most annual appropriations bills remain in limbo by the end of January, Democrats could replay the strategy that led to the longest shutdown in American history earlier this year. “They may be tempted to do it, as disastrous as the last one was,” he said. Cornyn predicted Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) would come under heavy pressure from liberals—both in the Senate and back home in New York—to force another shutdown. “Schumer’s not in any different political position than he was back then,” he said, referring to Schumer’s opposition in September and October to a “clean,” seven‑week continuing resolution to keep the government operating. “He’s afraid of the Democratic base,” Cornyn added, warning that Republicans would be “taking a risk” of another shutdown if they don’t hammer out a bipartisan deal to pass the regular appropriations bills in January.

Appropriations Hurdles

Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R–Maine) said she’s worried about another shutdown if the five‑bill spending package fails to move soon after New Year’s Day. “My worry is if we don’t pass this five‑bill package, we will end up in a shutdown,” she said. The five‑bill appropriations minibus is being delayed in the Senate by conservative Sens. Mike Lee (R–Utah), Ron Johnson (R–Wis.), and Rick Scott (R–Fla.), who are objecting to the number of earmarks, authorizing language that they said should be attached to spending legislation, and the sheer size of the package.

Another major obstacle is that House GOP leaders haven’t yet agreed to the top‑line spending numbers for 2026. Collins told The Hill that she’s waiting to hammer out the top‑line spending levels for several bills with the House. “There aren’t top lines on several bills. There are [top‑line spending agreements] on some but not on Labor, H, not on DOD, not on CJS,” she said, referring to the bills funding the departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, Defense, Commerce and State.

Appropriators are making some progress on resolving their disagreements with conservatives, which have stalled progress on the spending package for weeks. Lee said he is negotiating over the authorizing language that falls within his jurisdiction as chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. The language was added without his consent to the Interior appropriations bill. “I agreed to accept some of it, we’re negotiating the final details about exactly what’s going to be included,” he said of the language in the Interior bill that spurred him to put a hold on the spending package. Lee said he’s gotten “commitments” on scheduling votes to strip some of the earmarks out of the package.

Key Takeaways

• The failure to extend health‑insurance subsidies threatens a 26 percent premium hike and the loss of coverage for 4.8 million people in 2026.
• Democrats see the Jan. 30 funding deadline as a bargaining chip to force an extension of the subsidies, but Republicans are moving to pass a minibus that could reduce that leverage.
• Conservative opposition to earmarks and authorizing language is delaying the five‑bill appropriations package, raising the risk of another shutdown.

The coming weeks will determine whether the Senate can reconcile divergent priorities and avoid a repeat of last year’s longest shutdown, or whether the clash over subsidies and appropriations will push the nation into another period of government paralysis.