Last week, President Trump announced his first endorsements in non-incumbent Republican House primaries, backing former Maine governor Paul LePage, former Stockton mayor Kevin Lincoln and Texas Army veteran Eric Flores.
Trump’s First Non-Incumbent Endorsements
In a series of Truth Social posts on Thursday, the president publicly backed LePage in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, Lincoln in California’s 13th District, and Flores in Texas’s 34th District. The move marks the first time Trump has officially supported Republican challengers who are not sitting members of Congress.
NRCC and White House Coordination
National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Richard Hudson praised the “all-star recruitment class” the committee is building “in close coordination with the White House and our leadership team.” Hudson said, “President Trump understands the kind of candidates we need to win in key districts and I am grateful for the close working relationship the NRCC has built with the President and his team.”
Polling Context and Strategy
According to the latest polling average from The Hill’s partners at Decision Desk HQ, Democrats lead Republicans by roughly 6 points on the generic ballot. Trump’s approval ratings have dipped since taking office in January, but his approval rating in the DDHQ average increased 3.5 points since last month. “If the Republicans are going to hold the House of Representatives, Donald Trump is going to have to take them and put them on his back to carry them to victory,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell.
A Republican strategist told The Hill, “I’d rather have it than not.” The strategist added, “Whether he endorses you or not, you’re going to be tied to the successes and failures of the president and the Republican Congress.”
Maine’s 2nd District – A Likely Republican Seat
Prior to Rep. Jared Golden’s announcement that he would not seek reelection next year, Maine’s 2nd District was considered a toss-up. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has since labeled the seat “likely Republican.” LePage, a longtime Trump ally, will face at least one primary challenger in the Republican primary following James Clark’s entrance into the race, but the former governor is widely favored to win the intraparty contest.
Texas’s 34th District – A Crowded Field
Flores is confronting a crowded primary in Texas’s newly redrawn 34th District. Ten Republicans, including former Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Texas), are vying to challenge incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas). Cook has dubbed the district “lean Republican.” The state’s early primary on March 3 narrows the window for the president to endorse, a factor that some strategists note could carry risk.
“The real tough thing for [Trump] is going to be Texas in particular,” the unnamed Republican strategist said, citing the early nature of the state’s primary. “And so if he has some losses here, which is one of the reasons why I don’t think he endorses Cornyn, is he realized that if he took losses in Texas early on, it could have a cascading effect on the impact of his endorsements elsewhere,” the strategist said, referring to the state’s contested Senate GOP primary.
California’s 13th District – A Toss-Up
Lincoln is challenging Rep. Adam Gray (D-California) in the 13th District, which Cook has labeled a “toss-up.” California’s redistricting effort, pursued after Texas’s GOP-friendly map, aimed to counteract Republican gains in Texas.
White House Midterm Strategy
The White House has signaled plans to make the midterms a referendum on Trump. Chief of staff Susie Wiles said earlier this month that the president will campaign “like it’s 2024 again” to turn out low-propensity voters. “If he’s at the top of the ballot in swing states and they believe that they’re voting for Donald Trump, then Donald Trump is going to have a higher turnout. He wants people to think that he’s at the top of the ticket,” O’Connell said.
Economic data may also play into the campaign narrative. A 4.3 percent economic growth rate reported on Tuesday provides a boon for the White House and Republicans. White House spokesman Kush Desai said, “American consumers are spending, and American exports are surging. President Trump built the greatest economy in the world in his first term, and he’s in the process of doing it all over again. Americans can count on benefitting from a historic economic boom in 2026.”
Key Takeaways
- Trump endorses Paul LePage, Kevin Lincoln and Eric Flores in key House races.
- Democrats hold a 6-point lead in generic-ballot polls, while Trump’s approval rating rose 3.5 points.
- Texas’s early primary and crowded field present strategic risks for Trump’s endorsements.
The president’s endorsements come as Republicans face a challenging midterm landscape, with polling, redistricting, and early primaries shaping the battleground.
