In a move that has captured the attention of border communities, President Trump’s warning of a 5 percent tariff on Mexican imports has finally pushed the two nations toward a fresh agreement on the long-standing water debt that has plagued South Texas farmers for half a decade.
The Water Shortage and Trump’s Ultimatum
South Texas farmers have endured a dramatic reduction in water deliveries from the Rio Grande over the past five years, a situation that has left many fields dry and crop yields uncertain. In response, President Trump issued a stark threat: a 5 % tariff would be imposed on Mexico by the end of the year if the country did not begin to repay the massive water debt it owes the United States.
The tariff would sit on top of the existing 25 % tariffs applied to Mexican imports that are not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Trump’s warning was aimed squarely at a nation that, according to U.S. officials, has failed to meet its obligations under the 1944 binational treaty.
Mexico’s Drought and Treaty Obligations
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly pointed out that her country has endured several years of extreme drought, making it difficult to fulfill the treaty’s water-delivery requirements. Sheinbaum explained that the nation’s limited water supply prevents it from fully complying with the 1944 agreement.
Despite these constraints, Mexico and the United States reached a new arrangement last Friday. The deal focuses on a “timely repayment” of the deficit, beginning with the delivery of 202,000 acre-feet of water this week. Those deliveries will be stored at Amistad Dam and Falcon Lake in South Texas.
This amount represents only about a quarter of the 800,000-plus acre-feet that Mexico owes the U.S., but Sheinbaum emphasized that it is all the water she can spare.
> “We will not give water we don’t have; we will not affect Mexicans,” Sheinbaum said at her daily news conference on YouTube. “They wanted it (by) December but we told them we could not do that, not physically deliver it, not without consequences for us.”
Official Statements from U.S. Agriculture Officials
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Broke Rollins confirmed that negotiations will continue and that a formal plan will be announced by January 31. In a statement, Rollins praised Trump’s leadership for bringing a resolution to the crisis.
> “Farmers across South Texas have been reeling from the uncertainty caused by the lack of water. Now they can expect the resources promised to them, thanks to President Trump’s leadership,” Rollins said.
Rollins also thanked Mexico for its willingness to “return to good standing,” but reiterated that the new 5 % tariff would be enacted if Mexico violates its commitments.
Extending the Five-Year Cycle
Sheinbaum noted that Mexico has delivered more water into the Rio Grande from tributary basins in 2025 than in the previous four years of the five-year cycle that ended on October 25. The new deal essentially extends that cycle until Mexico can catch up, rather than rolling the debt for another five years-an outcome Sheinbaum had originally sought.
Both governments have agreed to monitor rainfall in Mexico on a monthly basis and to allow Mexico to make additional water payments based on those measurements.
Texas Farmers React
The Texas Department of Agriculture welcomed the Trump administration’s efforts to prevent the water debt from sliding further. Texas Agriculture Secretary Sid Miller posted a statement on social media that highlighted the importance of the deal.
> “I applaud President Trump for putting American farmers first and holding Mexico’s feet to the fire to get this treaty honored,” Miller said. “Let me be clear: Texas farmers expect Mexico to fully meet its obligations, not just today, but for years to come. Water is the lifeblood of agriculture.”
Farmers across the state have long advocated for a more reliable supply of water, and the new agreement offers a glimmer of hope that the river will once again carry the lifeblood of the region’s agriculture.
Key Takeaways
- The 202,000 acre-foot delivery represents only a quarter of Mexico’s total water debt, which exceeds 800,000 acre-feet.
- Mexico’s drought conditions limit its ability to meet treaty obligations, but the new deal extends the repayment cycle.
- A 5 % tariff will be imposed on Mexican imports if commitments are not honored, adding to existing 25 % tariffs for non-USMCA products.
- Monthly rainfall monitoring and additional payments will be part of the agreement’s enforcement mechanisms.
The Border Report continues to provide in-depth coverage of the U.S.-Mexico border, including water disputes, immigration, and trade. View past episodes of Border Report Live and stay informed about the latest developments on the border.
