At a Glance
- U.S. Ambassador Ronald Johnson praised U.S.-Mexico gains in water, crime, and migration.
- Mexico expelled 55 drug traffickers and cut fentanyl seizures to 11,486 lbs in FY 2025.
- Analysts warn the 2026 review of the USMCA could reshape trade between the three nations.
- Why it matters: The review could affect tariffs, jobs, and cross-border supply chains for millions of U.S. workers.
At the end of 2025, U.S. Ambassador Ronald Johnson reflected on a year of progress with Mexico, citing successes in water cooperation, crime reduction, and migration control, while experts signal that the upcoming 2026 review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement could alter the economic landscape.
Progress Highlights
Johnson highlighted improvements in the Tijuana-San Diego wastewater crisis and water sharing, noting Mexico’s pledge to meet its 1944 treaty obligations. He also praised the crackdown on transnational crime, citing Mexico’s expulsion of 55 drug traffickers and the record low of 11,486 pounds of fentanyl seized at the Southwest border.
- Water cooperation: Mexico pledged to deliver owed water to the Rio Grande.
- Crime reduction: 55 traffickers expelled, fentanyl seizures dropped.
- Migration: Illegal migration fell after Trump’s policy changes.
Ronald Johnson stated:
> “While we still face challenges, we achieved significant progress and, working together, will accomplish even more in the year ahead.”
Trade and USMCA Review
Analysts warn that tensions over drug trafficking and migration will persist, but the larger concern is the mandatory 2026 review of the USMCA, which could decide whether the agreement is renewed for another 16 years.
- USMCA strips tariffs from qualifying goods and speeds the flow of manufactured products.
- More than 13 million American jobs depend on trade with Mexico and Canada.
- Mexico has imposed tariffs up to 50% on Chinese imports amid U.S. pressure.
- Mexico’s energy, labor, and environmental policies pose challenges for U.S. investors.
Jamieson Greer said:
> “It is not in the country’s interest to ‘rubberstamp’ the treaty in its current form next July.”
> “The USMCA has provided some certainty for North American trade, but we have not achieved all our goals with respect to strengthening U.S. manufacturing capacity and creating good jobs, and nearly all stakeholders advocate improvements.”
> “I don’t think we can say the USMCA is an unqualified success,” Greer added.
Key Takeaways
- U.S. and Mexico made strides in water, crime, and migration, but challenges remain.
- The 2026 USMCA review will be pivotal for tariffs, jobs, and supply chains.
- Mexico’s trade policies and regulatory changes continue to affect U.S. investors.
As the U.S. and Mexico look ahead, the 2026 USMCA review will be a pivotal moment that could redefine trade, jobs, and security across North America.
