A convoy of buses carrying Syrian refugees crossed the border into Jdeidet Yabous on July 29, 2025, a stark reminder that the U.S. lifting of sweeping sanctions on Syria could soon spur a wave of returns.
U.S. Sanctions and the Senate Vote
The United States Senate voted on Wednesday to permanently remove the Caesar Act sanctions that had been imposed on Syria in 2019. The repeal follows a temporary lifting of the penalties by President Donald Trump through an executive order. The vote was part of the passage of the country’s annual defense spending bill, and Trump is expected to sign the final repeal on Thursday.
Returnees and Numbers
Since the ouster of former Syrian President Bashar Assad in December 2024, an estimated 400,000 Syrian refugees have returned from Lebanon. Around 1 million remain in the country, with 636,000 officially registered with the U.N. refugee agency. The agency reports that more than 1 million refugees and nearly 2 million internally displaced Syrians have returned to their homes since Assad’s fall.
Economic Challenges and Aid
Refugees returning from neighboring countries are eligible for cash payments of $600 per family. However, many come back to destroyed houses and find no work opportunities, making the cash insufficient. The aid provided so far by international organizations to help Syrians rebuild has been on a “relatively small scale compared to the immense needs,” said UNHCR Lebanon Representative Karolina Lindholm Billing.
Reconstruction Needs
The World Bank estimates it will cost $216 billion to rebuild the homes and infrastructure damaged and destroyed in Syria’s civil war. “So what is needed now is big money in terms of reconstruction and private sector investments in Syria that will create jobs,” Billing added. The lifting of sanctions could “make a big difference” by encouraging private investment.
New Refugees and Minority Risks
While a steady flow of returnees has been observed over the past year, other Syrians have fled the country since Assad was ousted by Islamist-led insurgents. Many of them are members of religious minorities fearful of being targeted by the new authorities-particularly members of the Alawite sect to which Assad belonged and Shiites concerned about revenge attacks due to support from Iran and Hezbollah.
Hundreds of Alawite civilians were killed in sectarian violence on Syria’s coast in March. Although the situation has calmed since then, Alawites continue to report sporadic sectarian attacks, including kidnapping and sexual assault of women.
Documentation and Legal Status
About 112,000 Syrians have fled to Lebanon since Assad’s fall, Billing said. New refugees receive very little assistance and generally lack legal status in the country. “Their main need, one of the things they raise with us all the time, is documentation because they have no paper to prove that they are in Lebanon, which makes it difficult for them to move around,” Billing said.
While some have returned to Syria after the situation calmed in their areas, she noted, “Many are very afraid of being returned to Syria because what they fled were very violent events.”
Key Takeaways
- The U.S. Senate’s repeal of the Caesar Act may encourage a surge of Syrian refugees to return home.
- Over 400,000 returnees have already crossed back into Syria, with more than 1 million refugees and nearly 2 million internally displaced people reported as returned.
- Reconstruction costs are estimated at $216 billion, and lifting sanctions could unlock private investment and job creation.
The decision to lift sanctions comes at a time when refugees face economic hardship, lack of documentation, and ongoing sectarian risk. The UN’s call for significant reconstruction funding highlights the need for sustained international support as the country rebuilds after nearly 14 years of conflict.
